Question

15% chance of a huge earthquake happening in the next 50 years?

Answer 1

Without more info, the only thing we can say for sure : it's between 0% and 15%.

It really depends on the underlying distribution. It is very unlikely that the odds of an earthquake happening any year are independent.

Answer 2

**If** you assume that the chance of a huge earthquake in a year is **independent** of any other year (which is unlikely), then

|Event|Chance|
|:-|:-|
|(Not in next 50 years)|85%|
|(Not in next 5 years)^(10)|85%|
|Not in next 5 years|^(10)√0.85|
|In next 5 years|1 - ^(10)√0.85 ≈ 1.612%|

Answer 3

Assuming each year has same chance,

Say, there will be earhquake in 50 years, probability of happening in first 5 years is 1/10

We are looking for probability of happening AND within 5 year range, so,

15%.10%= 15/1000

Or 1,5%

Edit: I also assumed there will be max 1 earthquake. Since big earhquakes prevent more big earthquakes

Answer 4

3/200