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This is my first time posting here so if I’m in the wrong place let me know. I by no means have any statistical training other than a couple college courses and books I’ve been reading.

I’m trying to build a model to predict 4Q scoring in NBA games. I would like to build a 4Q power ranking system and be able to plug two teams into it so I can produce an answer of whether these teams against each-other will increase or decrease their scoring pace in the 4th.

I have currently been logging each NBA box score into excel and then finding each teams mean points per quarter. I understand these are descriptive statistics and although on average I have found teams score less in the 4th than the first 3 quarters it doesn’t necessarily give me any predictive power.

I am hoping to be pointed in the right direction of what kind of function I can apply to accomplish this or at least get me started. Thanks.

I’m using Excel BTW.

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